Top Ten Reasons for the 2010 Telecom Rebound

I don’t know about you, but I can’t believe how much market activity we’re seeing in communications software these days versus the situation of a year ago. It’s enough to drive our engineering and product managers into a synaptic meltdown, given the presales and early project delivery demands.

It’s about time. I ran an interesting google trends search this afternoon, which ranks, in simple relative terms, the number of times “telecommunications” has been used as a search term, starting in 2004 and ending today. Search frequency has dropped by about 75% over that period. In other words, the average schmo is about a quarter as likely to satisfy some level of curiosity about telecommunications as he was five years ago.

Telecom Search Term Trend

Tiger Woods Search Term Trend

By comparison, searches for “Tiger Woods” have grown more popular by about 750%. Particularly in the last two weeks.

Go figure.

So based on our own small sample of interest in things telecom, I’m compiling a list of the top ten reasons why I believe telecom is at an inflection point — a very interesting one at that — and why the google trend curve for 2010-2015 (or whatever replaces it from the google labs) will look much like a mirror image of the 2004-2009 version. I’ll post the first five of these today, and follow up in the next few days with the remainder.

Number 10: Mobile data demand drivers will force a business paradigm shift. All-you-can-eat data may be becoming unaffordable (see the interesting article by John Paczkowski in All Things Digital). It’s going to get worse with video. Someone’s going to have to pay for all the upgrades and new backhaul. The people with expensive unlimited data plans (the kind of people who write news articles and blog a lot) aren’t going to like it.

Number 9: The mainstreaming of VoIP and multimedia will force a technical and architectural paradigm shift. The IMS platforms that are rolling out to deliver VoIP and other services work in the lab, but they aren’t ready for prime time operations. The management tools aren’t there yet. Demand for new tools and new methods and procedures is going to fuel innovation and new entrants. Some of the new kids are going to be newsworthy success stories.

Number 8: One or more major service provider networks will suffer a catastrophic security breach. It’s going to make big news, spur bloviating politicians to hold Very Important Hearings, and refocus attention on securing the net. The vulnerabilities — either in the internet or in closed service provider networks — are just too glaring to ignore. Some bozo hijacking a Tier I network will make good fodder for 60 Minutes.

Number 7: The US industry is ripe for reregulation. The Obama Department of Justice was widely rumored in July of this year to be investigating antitrust violations in US telecommunications. The long silence since then may be an indication that the rumors were greatly exaggerated, but whether in antitrust enforcement or in new net neutrality regulation, the long arm of the law is about to get longer. Lawyers, rejoice.

Number 6: The intersection of Google, Apple, and global service providers like AT&T, Verizon, and Vodafone is going to force a restructuring of players and roles. The hunger for content and advertising revenue, the interdependencies among the networks, platforms, and developers, and the extremely capital-intensive nature of the needed new infrastructure will force a historic realignment. The “communications service provider” of 2009 will be unrecognizable in a few short years.
to be continued…